The Survival Strategies of Japanese Financial Institutions during the Recession (2) 15 Nov 2022, 7:26 am

 The fact that negative interest rates have been imposed on the two megabanks every six months for the first time in six years means that loans are not increasing enough despite the continued massive quantitative easing. In other words, there is a lack of demand for funds in the economy. The reason for the lack of demand for funds is that investment and consumption do not live. Investment and consumption are not living because the outlook for the future is uncertain. Consumers in Japan, whose population is declining and aging is serious, close their wallets even with a small shock. The contraction of domestic demand reduces the willingness of companies to invest. It is a chronic disease of Japan that has been constantly afflicting the Japanese economy since the collapse of the bubble.

Japan has already started a zero-interest-rate policy in 1999 that lowers policy interest rates by nearly 0%, experimented with the world's first quantitative easing policy in 2001-2006, and began a bolder quantitative easing policy in 2013. Interest rates have been extremely lowered due to the quantitative easing policy, but there has been no significant change in the demand for funds from households and companies. Japan's loan-to-deposit ratio, which stood at 1.5% in the mid-1990s, fell to less than 1% in 2012, and recently, it is only 0.56%.

Japan's financial institutions had to struggle to survive the poor conditions. The first strategy of the Japanese financial institution for survival was to expand overseas with Japan's abundant funds. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group's acquisition of CNS in June this year is only an extension of its continuous overseas market development. The number of overseas employees of Mitsubishi UFJ Bank under the group is already 25% of the number of domestic employees in Japan. The overseas market now accounts for nearly 45% of Mitsubishi UFJ Group's total profits. It is also the group that holds a 21.5 percent stake in Morgan Stanley, a global financial institution.

Although the proportion of the U.S. and China is still large and the proportion of Southeast Asia is insignificant, Japanese financial institutions are expanding their investments in Southeast Asia, which is expected to grow in the future. In particular, Thailand has the largest trading volume in Southeast Asia, with the stock market trading amount of about 55 billion won. Mitsui Sumitomo Group, which has a relatively weak share (36%) of overseas markets, decided to invest in financial institutions in Vietnam, the Philippines and India in 2021 alone. Nomura Securities, which sold CNS, is also not withdrawing from the Thai market. It is a requirement to focus on business and corporate transactions with the wealthy. The overseas market accounts for nearly 40% of Nomura Holdings' profits.

Another survival strategy following entry into overseas markets is the expansion of customers or the creation of new services through the linkage of different financial businesses. It is already a familiar strategy in the Korean financial market, but it can also be seen as different from Korea. One of them is to link banks and securities businesses in overseas markets. The aforementioned acquisition of CNS by Mitsubishi UFJ Group was made through Ayutthaya Bank, which the group acquired in 2013. Ayutthaya Bank is known as a securities company with a strong position that ranks fifth among Thai banks in terms of assets, and CNS is known as a securities company with strong Internet sales of investment trusts. Mitsubishi UFJ Group's goal is to expand its personal securities business in Thailand by utilizing the bank's customer base.

The other is the business partnership between large securities firms and local banks. In Japan, business partnerships between banks and securities have been the subject of regulation. This is to prevent banks that have superior status to companies as suppliers of funds from exerting undue pressure on companies in relation to securities business. For example, a client bank can put pressure on a company ahead of the issuance of corporate bonds to use a specific securities company as a chief executive. However, it is true that in Japan, where the demand for funds has shrunk, the number of companies with virtually little borrowing has increased, and the superiority of banks has also weakened a lot. On the other hand, a partnership between banks and securities will enable new services to companies' financial strategies. For example, depending on the financial situation of a company, a better alternative may be proposed: bank loans or corporate bond issuance. Eventually, the Japanese government decided to ease previous regulations on business partnerships between banks and securities.

In particular, local banks, which are threatened by their survival in an environment where the local population is rapidly decreasing, are active in collaboration with large securities firms. Fukui Bank decided to transfer its securities customer accounts to Nomura Securities and use its local customer network to sell Nomura Securities' financial products. An employee of Nomura Securities will also be assigned to Fukui Bank to support its work. In fact, business alliances between Nomura and local banks have already begun in 2020, and Fukui Bank will be the fourth partner. Nomura, a subsidiary of the group and does not have a bank, can utilize the customer base of local banks, and local banks can utilize Nomura's financial products and customer services.

The third strategy of Japanese financial institutions to survive the recession is the development of new financial instruments. Japan is a society in which the youth population decreases every year. The population in their early 20s, which was 10 million in 1995, fell to less than 8 million in 2003, and is now around 6 million. Not only is the youth population decreasing, but the proportion of drivers with licenses is also decreasing in the current youth generation. The number of people driving cars is rapidly decreasing. This means a reduction in the auto insurance market, which was a large part of the profits of insurance companies. Instead, as the future outlook becomes uncertain, more and more young people are interested in pension insurance. Japanese financial institutions are also risking their lives to develop new products and services that can target these young consumers.

Mitsui Sumitomo's investment in SBI and Tokyo Marine Insurance's start to sell insurance at Amazon Japan also means entering the Internet and digitizing, but it is also part of providing new services to target young customers.

It is known that major customers of SMBC Nikko Securities under Mitsui Sumitomo Group are in their 50s or older, while SBI Securities is known to have about 40% of those in their 20s and 30s. SMBC Nikko Securities wants to increase its contact points with young customers through links with SBI. Tokyo Marine Insurance Co., Ltd. uses Amazon Japan to reach young people who are unfamiliar with insurance. It is also possible to utilize the existing customer information in Amazon Japan as it is, pay insurance premiums through Amazon Pay, and receive insurance 구로셔츠룸 money as Amazon gift certificates if desired.

In addition, cyber insurance and drone insurance are sold. Cyber insurance is insurance against various risks such as data loss on the cyber and slander or serious injury on the cyber. Drone insurance is an insurance against damage or injury that occurs during drone operation. It is known that insurance design is also in progress in preparation for accidents of self-driving cars.

The reality facing Japanese financial institutions is still harsh. As long as the population decreases and low growth continues, interest rates in Japan are bound to be lower than in other countries. There are still a lot of tasks in digital, fintech, and AI utilization. Although investment in overseas products is increasing due to the reduction of the domestic market, it is never easy for small financial institutions that have not accumulated experience. As of the end of June this year, there were reports that foreign securities and investment trust valuation losses at 99 local banks in Japan exceeded 1 trillion yen. This is because bond prices have fallen in the aftermath of a global rate hike. Therefore, in order to survive, we need to keep our antennas close to market 해외축구중계 trends and strive more than we have tried so far.

The reality facing Korean financial institutions is never easy. Interest rates are rising due to inflation, and the difference in interest rates on loans is more affordable than in Japan, but Korea is also a country with a declining population. The real estate market will never be good either. If the demand for funds 믈브중계 shrink due to the shrinking domestic market, it will be in the same position as Japan. Analyzing the strategies of major Japanese financial groups, which already earn nearly half of their profits overseas, there will be many implications for applying them to Korean financial institutions.

The Survival Strategies of Japanese Financial Institutions during the Recession (1) 15 Nov 2022, 7:24 am

 On January 17, negative interest rates were imposed on some of the checking deposits held by Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, one of Japan's four largest megabanks. Except in 2016, when the negative interest rate system was first introduced, it was the first time in six years that negative interest rates were applied to large banks. Just six months later, on August 17, negative interest rates were imposed on some of Mizuho Bank's checking accounts, which are also one of the four megabanks.

Meanwhile, in June, the investment of a large financial group in securities firms was a hot topic. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (FG), the parent company of Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, announced that it would acquire Capital Nomura Securities (CNS), a Thai securities subsidiary of Nomura Holdings. Nomura Holdings is the parent company of Nomura Securities, Japan's largest securities firm. Mitsubishi UFJ Group will invest up to 5.5 billion baht (about 21.2 billion yen) through Ayutthaya Bank under the group. Mitsui Sumitomo, Japan's second-largest financial group after Mitsubishi UFJ Group, announced a 10-percent capital tie-up for SBI, an Internet brokerage firm.

Nomura Securities, which sold its Thai 광명셔츠룸 securities subsidiary to Mitsubishi UFJ Group, announced on July 8 that it had agreed to a comprehensive partnership with local bank Fukui Bank in financial product brokerage business. On August 12, Tokyo Marine & Fire Insurance announced that it would start selling insurance at Amazon Japan's Internet shopping mall. It plans to expand its products from earthquake insurance to accident insurance.

The news, which has become the front page of Japan's economic magazine in 2022, comprehensively shows the difficult situation facing Japanese financial institutions and their survival strategies to 광명셔츠룸 survive the situation.

Just as households and businesses have accounts in banks, commercial banks have accounts in central banks. What is deposited in the account is a central bank checking account. Japan's massive quantitative easing, which began in 2013, focuses on the Bank of Japan purchasing financial assets of commercial banks and increasing the balance of checking deposits at commercial banks in return. The increased balance of checking accounts becomes a source of funds for banks to lend to households and businesses. As loans to households and companies increase, the amount of money circulated in the market increases, and the value of the currency can be expected to fall due to an increase in the amount of money. Inflation expectations arise in the domestic market, and the depreciation of the Japanese currency is induced in the foreign exchange market.

However, if the checking deposit deposited in the central bank has increased and the checking deposit does not lead to 신림셔츠룸 loans, an increase in the amount of currency and the resulting derived effect cannot be expected. Therefore, the Bank of Japan introduced a negative interest rate system in 2016 with the aim of encouraging commercial banks to lend. If the balance of the checking account exceeds a certain amount, a -0.1% interest rate will be charged for the excess.

FOMC Meeting Results 12 Nov 2022, 1:51 am

 The alarm is set at 3 a.m. on November 3rd, and the FOMC December interest rate message will be checked

I looked from various angles to measure, but I have no sense at all.

​

So far, every time Powell comes out and mentions it, the stock market has had a negative impact. It's been about a month later month. 

a growing sense of uneasiness Once the U.S. ETF secures cash and if it falls sharply due to negative news, it is only considering a low-point purchase approach. I hope we can write the market with a good result tomorrow.

​

-----------------------------------------------------------

​

Dow -0.24 Nasdaq -0.89%

Decline ahead of FOMC. 

​

10-year government bond yield falls to 4.048%, positive employment indicators The ISM manufacturing index is sluggish. Export growth rate of 10sul -5.7% due to sluggish semiconductors in Korea. Reverse growth in two years. a trade deficit for the seventh consecutive month

​

At 3 a.m. on November 3rd, Korea time, the Fed will announce a 0.75% increase in its benchmark interest rate in November and give hints on the December rate hike. JP Morgan will finish raising interest rates early next year.  UBS won't be easy to change direction. What will it be?

​

I have no idea what message Powell will give. However, if news falls below expectations significantly, it plans to approach it from a low-point purchase perspective.

​

improvement in foreign supply and demand Nuclear power plants, secondary batteries, and construction industries are strong

​

Secondary Battery POSCO Chemical Samsung SDI LG Energy Solution SK Innovation LG Chem Cosmo Chemical EcoPro BM Major Electronics L&F

​

Game NCsoft Devsisters

​

LS's earnings are improving and it has broken through the sales wall

​

Doosan Pure Cell has excellent technology among hydrogen theme stocks

​

Korea Aerospace Hyundai Rotem LIG Nex1 Hanwha Aerospace in the face of a technical rebound in defense stocks

​

NAVER hit 460,000 won last year. Approaching NAVER for 160,000 won this year

​

Waste battery-related stocks rose together, including Sungil Hi-Tech Savitchem Welcron Tec

​

Celltrion Celltrion Healthcare Limited, an alternative stock in the face of a decline in the pharmaceutical bio market  

​

ETF is TIGER US Philadelphia Semiconductor NASDAQ TIGER KRX 2nd Battery K-New Deal KODEX US Clean Energy NASDAQ TIGER 

U.S. dollar bond active 

​

New drug pipelines such as HLB and HLB Life Sciences, pharmaceuticals, etc. Excellent and growth potential

When is the bottom?" Judging from the possibility of a turnaround in the stock market, 17 Jun 2022, 1:10 am

 The stock market is in the fog due to anxiety that a recession will come as interest rates soar due to high inflation. Except for those who entered the market at the beginning of the 2020 rebound, entry into the loss section is imminent. Securities firms, which had been shouting "We are close to the bottom" just a month ago and "We can rebound in the second half," are now changing their words, saying the stock market could fall further. We looked at the background of the fluctuating diagnosis of securities firms and the possibility of a market reversal in the future.

Collapsed Maginot Line' KOSPI 2,500

The KOSPI, which closed at the end of last year with 3,000 collapsing, fell below the 2,700-point level in March this year, but the 2,500-point level did not collapse. The KOSPI 2500 is one times the PBR. If released easily, the value of net assets excluding debt among assets of KOSPI-listed companies will be the same as the market capitalization. If it is less than 1 times the PBR, it means that the future net worth of companies will be less than now, which means that there will be a deficit.

The most recent time when one PBR was broken was in the fourth quarter of 2018. As the U.S. raised its key interest rate, it began to reverse short- and long-term interest rates, in other words, showing signs of sluggish economy. It fell to 0.8 times in August 2019 and fell to 0.59 times in March 2020, when the COVID-19 shock hit. It will recover one-fold at the end of 2020 and increase to 1.3 times last year. In other words, the market's judgment on the value of the stock market has changed from "more than 40% poor" to "more than 30% expansion."

The collapse of the KOSPI 2500 also threatens another support line, which is 10 times the PER ratio. This means that the market capitalization is 10 times the net profit of listed companies. A fall in PER values means that companies' profits do not increase well. It also means that the market does not pay generous prices to companies, which is deeply related to the amount of money released on the market and interest rates. When interest rates fall, PER goes up. The KOSPI was a stronger support line than the PER 10 times the PBR.

#Up 2900, down 2000

For 20 years, the average KOSPI has 1.18 times the PBR and 14.82 times the PER. It is time for the KOSPI to move between 2900 and 3100 last fall. This is also why securities firms recently expected the top of their second half forecast to be around 2,900 to 3,000. The problem is the bottom. If it is 0.8 times PBR in 2019, it will be pushed back to the 2,000-point level. In other words, the KOSPI may rise by 25% or fall by 20%. What matters is interest rate levels and corporate performance.

The expected average of securities firms' operating profit for KOSPI companies in the second quarter compared to the same period last year is about 19.5%. This means that experts believe that Korean companies' profits will increase by 20% in the second quarter of this year from a year ago. Our stock market has many export companies. If the exchange rate increases, the won-denominated amount will increase even if it is the same dollar sales. The won-dollar exchange rate in the second quarter of last year was around 1,120. The exchange rate has recently risen to 1,290 won, and the average in the second quarter of this year is more than 1,260 won.

Prices and interest rates should also be considered. In the second quarter, international oil prices soared over $100 a barrel to around $120 a barrel. The interest rate that companies pay when borrowing money from the market was less than 2% in the first half of last year alone, but it recently rose to 4% in the first quarter of this year, exceeding 3% in the first quarter of this year. Prices and interest rates are reflected in the real economy over time. In other words, it could be more difficult as the third quarter progresses.

#Biden's diplomacy needs to move the Fed

If inflation is caused by high demand, it may be effective to calm the economy by raising interest rates. However, if inflation is caused by twisted supply chains, rising interest rates can dampen private economic activities, leading to a recession. For the U.S., which supports consumption with overseas imports, a strong dollar is needed to curb prices. Stock markets plunged on news that the U.S. is planning to raise its key interest rate aggressively, raising concerns over stagflation (price inflation is occurring at the same time amid the economic recession). In the end, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is the main body that will provide clues to the market's rebound.

The Biden administration should revive the stock market ahead of the November midterm elections. In the United States, the household economy and the stock market are deeply linked. It is necessary to control prices, but it is difficult to damage the economy too much. The Fed's hawkish moves may also be intended to end the price crackdown phase "short and thick." As soon as the U.S. signals that it will control the speed and slope of interest rate hikes, the market is likely to stabilize quickly.

The Fed's change in attitude should be based on diplomatic efforts by the Biden administration. The key is how to fill the vacuum in Russia and Ukraine in the raw material and food markets and how to lead to increased production in oil-producing countries in the Middle East. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sees the current supply shortage as a golden opportunity to recover its once-difficult finances.

passing by 1 17 Jun 2022, 1:07 am

June 10, 2022 Overseas Stock Exchange Report 16 Jun 2022, 9:34 am

 ◇ U.S. stock market investment strategy

1. Market Radar: Instead of G2 Stock / Weekly Data Book (22.05.31~06.07)

- [United States] Until the Fed's rate hike is interpreted as confidence in economic recovery. Value stocks (financial, consumer goods) response.

  Growth stocks (IT, healthcare, ESG, electric vehicles & secondary batteries, aerospace, metaverse) are purchased in installments in the first half of the year (especially in May) when price adjustments are made

​

- Continuing to contract economic sentiment following the promotion of common wealth. Policy efforts to defend the economic slowdown continue.

  The stock market level was higher than the previous year. 1Q and 4Q can be traded based on political events. Attention is paid to leading domestic companies and low-carbon (electric vehicles, secondary batteries)/ESG companies

​

​

◇ US Company REPORT

1. [NAS:AAPL] Shinhan, the leading U.S. IT H/W and S/W company represented by iPhone

​

 Representative IT H/W and S/W companies in the United States represented by iPhone and iOS platforms. Establishment of monopoly position in global premium smartphone market. $600 to $799, 76% and 83% share over $800 respectively

​

 FY2021 iPhone 52%, service 19%, wearable 10%, MAC 10%, iPad 9%

​

 Annual iPhone shipments in 2020 are 25.5 million (+4.1% YoY) and 16% market share, ranking second (+2%p)

​

 Estimated annual iPhone sales of 230 million units in 2021. Shipments are expected to reach 250 million units in 2022. 3rd generation of low-end iPhone SE, iPhone 14 design changes are expected to cause sales to soar in the U.S., which is a major market

​

 Demand for wireless earphones 'AirPods' and smartwatches 'Apple Watch' continues to boost wearable performance

​

 It is expected that AR/VR headset will be released as early as the end of 2022. Synergy with service department due to new device release. Expect the business feasibility of existing subscription-type services to be more

​

 Payable subscribers in the service sector rose 26% from 620 million in 2020 to 7.85 billion in FY1Q22

​

 1.8 billion users of Apple devices perceive as potential demand; service sector growth potential is valid

​

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

■ Chinese stock market investment strategy

1. Introduction of a policy to accelerate the construction of chargers and expectations for rapid growth of battery switching stations

​

- Accelerating the deployment of charging equipment, the market for chargers is forecast to grow 72% annually over four years: On June 1, China's State Council announced policies and measures to stabilize the economy

- Key parts suppliers benefiting from high growth of DC chargers and increased penetration rate of fast chargers: Because the most important thing for NEVs is electricity replenishment, DC chargers with high charging speed are generally installed in places with high charging demand, such as highways

- Balance of supply and demand at battery exchange stations within the 14th five-year plan, battery-switched EVs will drive profitability: Some companies have announced plans for battery exchange for the 14th five-year plan, with 1,298 total exchanges in 2021.

​

​

■ Special Report

1. Self-propelled artillery - raw materials, food and FOMC SK

​

[Stock] Week 2 of June Preview: Mitigating monetary policy uncertainty that the FOMC will give in June

 ⚫ The biggest event in the stock market in the second week of June is FOMC in June (June 16 (Thursday) early morning)

▪ The current stock market reflects most of the 50bp increase in the FOMC in June and July, respectively

▪ Federal funds rate futures are currently betting on a 50bp increase in FOMC in September and a 2.75-3% interest rate level at the end of this year

▪ The stock market at the beginning of the week is expected to be largely affected by the results of the May U.S. CPI announcement at 9:30 p.m. on June 10 (Fri)

▪ With the U.S. CPI forecast of 8.2~8.3% YoY formed in May, if it exceeds expectations, the stock market is feared to fall as expectations of interest rate hikes from the September meeting are shaken

▪ This trend is expected to continue before the FOMC in June. Presenting guidance on future interest rate paths in dotplots, reducing uncertainty and the possibility of stabilization

​

⚫ Rising KOSPI profit consensus despite gloomy macro situations

▪ The KOSPI profit consensus has been raised since the end of April. 12MF net profit +3.7% increased and fell to 12MFP/E 9.56 times

▪ In terms of net profit, the contribution to increase is high in the order of semiconductor > transportation > energy, while the contribution to increase is high in the order of utilities < non-ferrous/wooden <insurance

▪ Expected to raise the consensus of transportation, trading/capital goods and utilities (Korea Gas Corporation) in the future when comparing the adjustment rate of the one-month moving average consensus of the KOSPI profit estimate with that of the three-month basis. On the other hand, the consensus of machinery and display industries is expected to be lowered

How U.S. Stock Investment Is Different from Domestic 16 Jun 2022, 9:31 am

 Seohak Ant (individual investors in overseas stocks) is steadily increasing, leaving the domestic stock market and turning to overseas stock markets. This is because volatility in the domestic stock market is expanding due to unfavorable internal and external factors such as global austerity and the war between Russia and Ukraine. In particular, as the number of domestic individual investors investing in the U.S. stock market increased, attention was also paid to what stocks were mainly included. The industry predicts that the proportion of Seohak ants among domestic investors will increase further unless anxiety factors about the domestic stock market are calmed down in the future. I looked into the reason and report card of the Seohak ant craze.

Amid the so-called concentration of U.S. stocks by Seohak ants, there are many voices calling for careful investment after closely grasping the characteristics of the U.S. stock market and information on investment stocks. This is because the U.S. stock market operating system has a structural difference from the domestic market. 

Due to the growth of U.S. technology stocks, global quantitative easing, and expansion of investment channels by securities firms, Seohak ants' investment in U.S. stocks has recently drawn a steep upward curve. According to the Korea Securities Depository, domestic investors' payments (buying + selling) for U.S. stocks jumped about 15 times from $22.47 billion (about 27.2786 trillion won) at the end of 2018 to $3705 billion (about 449.24 trillion won) at the end of last year. The share of U.S. stocks in the total overseas stock storage amount (investment balance) increased from 47% to 87% during the same period.

First, the U.S. stock market has no limit on the range of stock price fluctuations. Unlike the domestic market, where the price fluctuation limit is applied at ±30%, there is no upper and lower limit system. As a result, stock prices can fluctuate sharply due to various market variables. In addition, due to the time difference between domestic and local, it may not be smooth for domestic investors to respond quickly from time to time. 

For example, Yandex, Russia's largest Internet company, plunged 40.3 percent to $20.32 from $34.04 on February 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Chinese drone development and production company Lee Hang plunged 62.7% from $124.09 to $46.30 when global investment company Wolfpack Research released a short-selling report on February 16 last year. It was a report containing claims that the sales of the port may have been manipulated and that the factory in Guangzhou in the port was not properly equipped.

Unexpected risks such as delisting and trading restrictions may be encountered. Unlike Korea, the U.S. stock market has a delisting system based on price flows. The New York Exchange (NYSE) can be delisted if the stock price is less than $1 for 30 consecutive trading days. In late February, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the sale of shares of Russian-related companies listed on the U.S. stock market, including Kiwi Yandex and Ozone Nexus, was suspended.

There is also a possibility of high-rate taxation according to the local taxation system. In Korea, the same stock dividend income tax (15.4%) is applied. However, the U.S. stock market can be taxed at a high rate of more than 30% or additional taxes depending on the type of securities. In fact, "X-Links Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN," an ETN that pays twice the dividend income of a particular real estate investment trust ( REITs), is taxed at a 30% tax rate on dividend income, considering it as derivatives-linked securities, not general stocks. According to Section 871(m), the US taxation system, additional taxation is also incurred at a 15% tax rate on generated profits. Section 871(m) is a system in which non-residents in the United States impose taxes on investments in U.S. ETP (ETF, ETN) based on derivatives. It is necessary to clearly understand the local taxation system and the nature of investment stocks and invest.

"The Korea Securities Depository is doing its best to keep domestic investors' foreign currency assets stable, but information such as foreign currency securities transactions and markets needs additional confirmation from domestic securities firms," said an official at the Korea Securities Depository 유흥광고

best 1 16 Jun 2022, 9:21 am

Watch out for foldable phones in the second half of the foldable Smartphone 18 May 2022, 1:57 am

 The IT sector is continuing its sluggish stock price trend amid concerns over a decline in global demand. It is natural that demand for IT products decreases when the economy worsens. Analysts say that the foldable market is in the early stages of blooming, and core parts stocks are worth paying attention to. It's better to put related stocks together and check them out. 

​

​

Demand Peak-out Concern 

​

Demand for IT sets is hard to be optimistic about. It is because of the high base of COVID-19 for two years. Already, the decline trend is clear in major set families. 

​

- Smartphones, TVs, and tablets are clearly seeing a decline in demand. (3Q21 Peak-out)

 - Sales of laptops have also begun to decline. (1Q22 Peak-out) 

- Home appliances are also feared.(2Q22 Peak-out expected) / 

- Only the server is solid. 

​

GOS controversy is also an obstacle to Samsung Electronics' Galaxy strategy, which was aiming to restore its market share. It is a negative factor for Korea's IT parts industry. It is also pessimistic that Galaxy has been giving up its market share to its competitors over the past two years. It is estimated that sales of sets in 2022 will decrease by 2-10% year-on-year, respectively. In an environment where demand prospects are uncertain, an investment strategy for selecting bottom-up stocks is needed. 

​

Second half of 2022 – notice differentiated product lines, foldable 

​

We had a tour meeting with 70 companies. Companies are considering uncertainties in the second half of the year, although the current situation is solid. It is cautious to expect a sharp rebound in demand in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to industries/products/business groups that can be differentiated from the overall flow of IT demand. 

​

I think the IT momentum that stands out the most in the second half is foldable. 

​

① Even if IT is sluggish in 2022, the foldable industry will grow (more than +100% year-on-year).

② Orders for foldable parts from secondary parts manufacturers are increasing. Continuous upward revision of the consensus (recently compared to the end of the year) is expected. 

③ The benefits of the foldable will be concentrated on some parts manufacturers. 

④ Stock prices of companies with a high proportion of foldable companies in the company's operating profit will rise significantly. 

⑤ It pays attention to parts makers that can diversify their customers to Chinese companies. 

⑥ Foldable 'Display and Hinge' will be upgraded in 2023. Growth in 2023 and 2024, not this year's performance, should also be considered. 

​

Investment strategy – to distinguish between good and bad parts such as foldable parts 

​

Amid concerns over IT demand, it is not easy to find the top-down momentum of the parts/electronics industry. It is required to distinguish between good and bad stocks related to technological changes. Selectively, it is necessary to supply new items, increase market share, and discover corporate groups related to supply pharmaceutical products. 

​

First, it points to foldable as momentum for technology change in the second half of the year. Fine Technics (106240), KH Batech (060720), Interflex (051370), and Segyeong Hi-Tech (148150) are recommended as foldable beneficiaries. Other items of interest are BH (090460) and Novatech 285490.

​

inflation, supply and demand 16 May 2022, 1:24 am

 Inflation

​

The idea of inflation, rising energy prices, and growth in emerging economies

​

I was greatly influenced by Son Ji-woo's "Fear of Oil."

​

(It may be more of a brainwashing because it is a book I read when I started to be interested in going around the world.)

​

The one message that remains the strongest in "Fear of Oil" is 

​

Korea can grow real in an inflation/high oil price environment 

​

It's been a long time since I read it, so there may be distortion in my memory.

​

​

Since the inflation was revealed, it's clear now

​

When it comes to inflation, it's a good thing for Korea, so I'm only looking at Korea.

the supply and demand ends

​

What I'm most concerned about right now is 

​

It means that we should get close to the supply chain in some way.

​

(Supply side) Resources - Production - Distribution - Service - Consumption (Demand side)

​

In this trend, the inflationary situation is 

​

Players who are close to the supply chain pick the fruit 

​

I am determined to take a step closer to the supply side

​

If you're distributing it, you have to step up to production somehow 

​

If you're producing it, you'll get a step closer to the resources.

Investment

​

Investment is also viewed from the same point of view.

​

The big fluctuations started in the resource group and the waves came through production and into distribution.

​

Catch the road, spray traps, set nets, and wait for waves.

​

Construction rather than new construction or factories, warehouses, land

​

Manufacturing rather than IT 

​

More than being cool and comfortable, something that's essential and indispensable

​

Business 

​

One of the recent ideas is that my grit is pretty good 

​

I think I found one after a month.

Similar dollars and doubts and expectations 16 May 2022, 1:22 am

 The thought of LUNA is from being uncomfortable to being anxious

from uneasiness to expectation 

​

Conditions for Sustainable Defi 2.0

Defi 2.0 is criticized for its structure

Intuitively, the structure of our world is also similar to Defi 2.0.

​

In order to keep the system of our world from collapsing,

Maintaining governance is key.

They need to have more than half of their core resources

You have more than half of the core liquidity 

Allows the system to operate without disruption.

Defi 2.0 is not going to collapse 

Governance tokens and currencies. Creating a structure that allows administrators to dominate them is key.

It talks about the game theory for maintenance and the trust of the participants

In the first place, the easiest answer is for administrators to take complete control of governance and get the system up and running.

​

Luna's Sustainability

Luna created a structure that allowed both token control and currency control

Wouldn't they have overwhelming control of the system at this point? That's the judgment.

He's built up enough control to expand the system in abundance

The preparations are complete and we expect a full-fledged expansion.

Yesterday, Jaro Luna was connected to the mainstream (binance) via UST.

What do you expect?

Assuming growth and considering the different speeds, I think there will be two pictures. 

1. Create adjustable speed expansion while maintaining firm control?

2. What does control mean? A sudden loss of control and the resulting rapid pumping and dumping? 

Except for this anxiety factor,

The risk is not to bet.

Metabus_buy virtual world property 16 May 2022, 1:19 am

 A blockchain-based game called Big Time is being prepared for launch 

The game is not released yet, but the pre-Land sale starts tomorrow at 6 a.m. on the 22nd.

The coinage atmosphere is generally sluggish, but the individual NFT market is still hot.

In particular, pre-sales, minting, and subscriptions are boiling whether it's coins or real estate.

Real Estate in Virtual World 1

When I first came across this idea, I thought, "The virtual world's real estate is different from the real world."

Real estate is the underlying asset of our ecology, which is the basis of production 

It was judged that real estate in the virtual world was actually like an industrial product. 

It's not like land, it's like a locker room.

It's not like we're going to have real estate 

If you're going to take a limited share of the land, which is the fundamental asset, 

Real estte in the virtual world has a very weak intrinsic scarcity and the role of underlying assets within the blockchain network

I thought I couldn't do it at all.

Real Estate in Virtual World 2

And at some point, even if you buy property in the virtual world,

I thought it was time for some competition for the metaverse platform to be outlined against the dominant platform

Rather 

In the virtual world, the ones that have similar positions to real estate 

It's not every pretty pixel 

I think Layer 1 platform coins Ether, Solana, and Luna have the characteristics of land (real estate).

a slump in the Japanese stock market 15 May 2022, 6:08 am

Profitability of Japanese listed companies is a benefit of management innovation and profitability improvement.

This year, the investment boom is hot due to abundant liquidity and low interest rates caused by the COVID-19 incident.

U.S. stocks hit a record high, selling investors amid a struggling and waning Korean stocks.

In the previous work, we looked at the Japanese real estate market, which is still strong despite low birthrates and declining population.

This time, we will look at how Nikkei 225 has continued to rise over the past decade, focusing on the Japanese stock market.

The key to many factors is structural reform.

"Data 1" shows the changes in labor productivity in Japan since the 1960s paper series 21J027. Labor productivity refers to the amount of output produced by workers.

In the 1960s, it grew at an annual rate of 8 percent.

In the final analysis, the Japanese stock market sent a "lost decade" in 1990 due to active interest rate hikes in policy as well as a decline in corporate management efficiency.

Koizumi's government pushed for reform strongly

How to deal with a fall in the Japanese stock market!

Recently, the Japanese stock market has been falling sharply.

As of January 19, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index recorded 27,467.23 points, down 4.6% from 28,791.71 points as of the end of December 2021.

Even in this falling Japanese stock market, futures trading can generate large profits through short contracts.